Mid-July Eastern Conference NBA Outlook: Episode 022
The Collective Basketball Agreements Podcast is back to break down the salary cap management and overall transaction strategies of NBA teams during late June and early July.
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🟩 Tier 1: Smart & Creative Offseasons
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks pulled off one of the offseason’s most decisive strategic victories by flipping future risk into present value and control. Acquiring an unprotected 2026 first-round pick from New Orleans while drafting Asa Newell gives them both upside and flexibility. They aggressively acquired Nickeil Alexander-Walker from the Timberwolves via sign-and-trade — tightening their backcourt rotation while staying nearly $16 million under the first apron. Trae Young’s involvement in the recruitment of NAW and Luke Kennard reflects a top-down organizational alignment with players and front office sharing a vision. This was a clinical reset — adding value on all fronts while avoiding overexposure to risk.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland’s front office has fully committed to winning during the Donovan Mitchell era, leaning into the second apron while still maintaining roster balance. They made savvy decisions like re-signing Sam Merrill and adding Lonzo Ball in a value-conscious move, but also let Ty Jerome walk — a reminder that even deep teams can’t keep everyone. The Cavs are among the few teams whose cap limitations are the result of deliberate, championship-driven spending rather than overreach. Their potential pursuit of LeBron James — contingent on strict salary-matching and apron compliance — underscores how well they’ve managed optionality despite their heavy payroll. This is intentional overspending in pursuit of contention, done with strategic foresight in the wide open Eastern Conference.
Orlando Magic
By trading four (4) first-rounders for Desmond Bane, the Magic declared themselves ready to contend — and did so with admirable conviction. Their depth remains solid with Tyus Jones on board for twice-the-minimum salary ($7 million for 1 year), and there’s now speculation that players like Anthony Black or Jett Howard may become trade chips to balance the rotation. They’ve added shooting and secondary playmaking, showing a willingness to evolve from their previously defense-first identity. Orlando timed this pivot perfectly with a weakened Eastern Conference offering rare upward mobility. This is the kind of risk that resonates with both fans and players — bold, but logical.
Washington Wizards
For the first time in over a decade, the Wizards executed an offseason that suggests strategic clarity. Trading Jordan Poole for CJ McCollum’s expiring deal, landing Cam Whitmore on the cheap, and drafting Tre Johnson, Will Riley, and Jamir Watkins offers a foundation for a true rebuild. There’s still no clear franchise player, but their balance sheet is clean, and their cap flexibility is real. In a conference where many teams fear the bottom, Washington embraced it to build upward. It’s a thoughtful start — even if the journey will be long.
🟦 Tier 2: Well-Timed or Necessary Risk-Takers
Boston Celtics
The Celtics took a step back from their second apron tax exposure by trading Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, clearing over $260 million in future obligations while staying within title contention. Their frontcourt reconfiguration (Georges Niang in, Luke Kornet out, Al Horford likely gone) gives them more long-term flexibility and potential roster fluidity. With Sam Hauser retained and Luka Garza added for depth, Boston maintains enough talent to remain competitive despite Jayson Tatum’s injury. They are just barely above the second apron and could duck it via a targeted in-season trade. This offseason was less about splash than sustainability — and they nailed it.
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee rarely participates in the upper-tier free agent market, but signing Myles Turner to replace Brook Lopez is a rare exception that aligns well with their defensive identity. They also quietly gave Bobby Portis a raise and re-signed Ryan Rollins on a three-year, $12 million deal — low-risk moves that reflect a preference for internal stability. Alternatively, generating the largest stretch penalty in NBA history (i.e., buying out Damian Lillard) calls into question the uncertain future of Giannis Antetokounmpo. With about $23 million in dead money each season for five (5) years will doubtless continue to shape their cap calculus, but this front office nonetheless made the rational decision to maintain short-term competitiveness — at any cost. They’re surviving — and for an aging team, that’s a legitimate achievement.
New York Knicks
The Knicks opted for a measured offseason, staying under the second apron and making no major additions. With a deep, veteran rotation intact, they’ve bet on continuity and health, while keeping trade flexibility for later. There’s an argument that they missed an opportunity to take advantage of a weakened East, but their restraint preserves options for a marginal midseason splash. It’s the rare case where doing nothing might prove wise.
🟡 Tier 3: Major Directional Questions
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets made no major free agent signings despite having by far the most cap space, choosing instead to add five (5) rookies to the rotation and commit to a hard reset. For a team without a lottery pick since 2012, the strategy is understandable — but execution remains uneven. Their trade of Cam Johnson for just one (1) first-round pick (while taking on Michael Porter Jr.’s contract) raised eyebrows across the league: should they not have received at least one (1) first rounder for Cam Johnson, and another for the $78 million in bad salary for MPJ (over the next two years)? Alternatively, the 2032 unprotected Denver Nuggets first round pick is a gem for obvious reasons. While they’ve embraced the tank, their asset acquisition strategy still seems inefficient.
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte spent much of the offseason collecting combo guards — Tre Mann, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Collin Sexton — to complement (or compete?) with LaMelo Ball. The overlaps are obvious, and the lack of positional balance continues to define this roster. Brandon Miller remains a centerpiece, but there’s little cohesion around him. They appear to be leaning into pure talent acquisition rather than lineup synergy. It’s not a disaster, but it’s disjointed. Is there a major roster overhaul trade available to the Hornets, or have they already decided another lottery pick destination is destiny?
Indiana Pacers
After losing Tyrese Haliburton for the season, the Pacers let Myles Turner walk — to avoid the tax (again and every year since 2005) — and instead pivoted toward internal development and optionality. Trading for Jay Huff on a long-term team-friendly deal was one of the best minor moves of the summer. They also re-acquired their own pick, giving them more flexibility to manage performance incentives and draft positioning. The question is whether this was a planned adjustment or a reactive retreat. Either way, 2025 will be about laying groundwork for 2026 for Indiana.
Miami Heat
Miami did what Miami always does: stayed agile. Trading away Duncan Robinson while acquiring Norman Powell by trading Kyle Anderson and Kevin Love; retaining and extending Davion Mitchell; and drafting big point guard Kasparas Jakučionis — these shrewd moves were all textbook example of Heat culture trusting their stuff in the marketplace. Alternatively, they’re now hard-capped at the first apron, meaning no more mid-level spending is available; they are just $3.9 million below it with 14 players, so they're likely out on Bradley Beal. (Interestingly, the L.A. Clippers are likely the favorite to get Beal even after turning Powell into John Collins’ expiring $26 million contract.) Without a major star acquisition, ultimately, they remain a tier below the top contenders. Still, it was a credible reshuffle from a team that never bottoms out.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers remain caught between timelines, drafting upside with VJ Edgecombe and Johni Broome while Joel Embiid’s prime continues to tick away. Quentin Grimes’ restricted free agency could compromise their ability to use the full MLE, depending on timing and match decisions. It’s unclear whether the franchise is leaning toward a teardown or simply biding time for a better opportunity. The indecision is becoming a liability. Their summer wasn’t bad — just uncertain.
🔻 Tier 4: Running in Place or Buying Time
Chicago Bulls
Chicago made the head-scratching decision to trade Alex Caruso — arguably their best win-now player — for Josh Giddey, who will likely command a ~$25M/year extension. They remain near the luxury tax line despite no realistic path to a top-six seed. Ownership refuses to embrace a rebuild or spend into serious contention, leaving the roster stuck in purgatory. It’s not a competitive team, nor a young team. This is big-market inertia at its worst.
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons reacted swiftly to Malik Beasley’s off-court departure by signing Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert to ~$15M annual deals — a reasonable correction that gives Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey more spacing. They’ve stabilized after years of dysfunction, with their rotation finally reflecting a modern offensive structure. Still, these moves aren’t enough to lift them meaningfully in the standings. The Pistons didn’t regress, but they didn’t leap either. They’ve bought themselves time.
Toronto Raptors
Toronto’s draft choices — Collin Murray-Boyles and Alijah Martin — align with their identity as a tough, defensive-minded team. But the shooting and spacing questions remain unresolved, and they’ve made no trades to improve offensive balance. Their timeline clearly stretches beyond 2027, but without a franchise player or a modern offensive engine, it’s hard to see the finish line. This team has clarity, but little momentum. They’re building an identity — just not necessarily a playoff one.