Mid-July Western Conference NBA Outlook: Episode 023
The Collective Basketball Agreements Podcast is back to break down the salary cap management and overall transaction strategies of NBA teams during late June and early July.
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🟩 Tier 1: Smart & Creative Offseasons
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets executed a near-perfect offseason within the strict apron constraints. Denver turned a limited taxpayer MLE situation into a full-fledged roster upgrade, swapping Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson to save money while adding Jonas Valanciunas, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr. for depth. With roughly $7.7 million in room below the first apron and only minimum deals left to offer, they’ve maximized their flexibility and fortified the rotation around Jokic without sacrificing talent.
Houston Rockets
Houston flipped Jalen Green for Kevin Durant, signed Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela, and somehow remained comfortably under the first apron — a jaw-dropping display of financial and basketball competence. They also moved Cam Whitmore for two second-round picks, signaling their transition from youth development to full-blown contention. While the Whitmore trade raised eyebrows, it represents clarity: the Rockets are all-in, with books, bodies, and balance aligned. Few franchises in the league pivoted as efficiently from rebuild to playoff readiness. Their roster now has playoff-tested versatility, and they still have room to maneuver.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The defending champs made small but sharp moves to maintain their long-term dynasty track. They used their final roster spot on first round pick Thomas Sorber, giving them big-man insurance and a developmental piece alongside Chet Holmgren. Nikola Topić will debut in 2025-26, and OKC smartly stayed out of the tax, preserving their flexibility. With rookie-scale deals stacked behind their core and a war chest of picks still intact, the Thunder are built to contend both now and for the next five years. They’re not rebuilding or consolidating — they’re orbiting around sustainable greatness.
🟦 Tier 2: Appropriate Vision, Measured Execution
LA Clippers
The Clippers operated with a rare blend of short-term urgency and long-term awareness. They re-signed James Harden to a flexible contract and acquired John Collins’ expiring $26 million deal in a three-team trade (sending out Norman Powell after both sides failed to reach a contract extension beyond the 2025-26 season). With $5.3M remaining from their non-taxpayer MLE, they are still a player in free agency and could even pursue someone like Bradley Beal. Importantly, their books clear in 2027, giving them a clean runway for a rebuild if this group falters. This is a strategic two-year window — and they’re maximizing it.
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis took bold steps in reloading its roster. Trading Desmond Bane for a four first round picks and extending Jaren Jackson Jr. on a renegotiated deal showed a commitment to both future assets and present leadership. They added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, re-signed Santi Aldama (3 years, $52.5 million dollars), and brought in a contributor like Ty Jerome for the often underutilized Room Exception (starting at about $8.8 million in the first year for Jerome on a 2 + 1 contract structure). In addition to bolstering future draft capital, Memphis prioritized rotation depth and internal growth. Even smaller moves, like flipping Jay Huff for a second-round pick and a swap, show an eye for incremental value. The Grizzlies are building a next-gen core with sustainable cap control and upside, but where exactly does Ja Morant figure into things? With Morant does this team have a realistic shot at winning a title?
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota’s frontcourt continuity remains intact after extending Julius Randle and Naz Reid on reasonable 9-figure contracts — all while avoiding the second apron. They lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker but preserved the McDaniels-Randle-Gobert frontcourt around Edwards heading into a critical year. However, with Mike Conley’s $10M expiring deal as a slight albatross and young talent developing underneath him, Minnesota must strike a balance between veteran leadership and advancing the future. They made no major upgrades, but the cap discipline and foresight are evident. Quiet, but sharp — and not yet tapped out.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs had a quiet but effective offseason, highlighted by drafting Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant and signing Luke Kornet to a team-friendly deal using part of the Non-Taxpayer MLE. Kornet adds useful frontcourt depth, whether starting or backing up Wembanyama, and fits the franchise’s deliberate development arc. With $4.6 million of the MLE still available and a mostly full roster, San Antonio is wisely keeping flexibility in reserve as they continue their long-view rebuild.
Utah Jazz
Utah remains one of the most disciplined asset-focused franchises in the league. They took on Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson’s salaries for a second-round pick, continuing their willingness to absorb salary for value. Drafting Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton Jr. positions them well for wing versatility down the line. They also moved Collin Sexton to free up minutes and usage. No cap gimmicks or win-now pressures — just clean financial books and a young, length-heavy core. Their rebuild is the quiet part out loud, but the franchise is extremely competent.
🟡 Tier 3: Mixed Results & Lacking Direction
Dallas Mavericks
Drafting Cooper Flagg #1 overall was a no-brainer, but Dallas’s offseason was more defined by restraint than momentum. Re-signing Kyrie Irving to a 2+1 deal for $119M was a huge financial win — but he’ll miss the entire 2025–26 season. D’Angelo Russell’s signing via the TPMLE was serviceable, but they remain ~$19M into the tax with limited flexibility and playoff uncertainty. They made no major trades or upside plays, and the shadow of Luka Doncic remains a heavy weight on the franchise. Their identity feels incomplete, at least up until Flagg’s debut finally establishes a new dawn in Dallas.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are one of the hardest teams to evaluate because they remain paralyzed between eras. Jonathan Kuminga’s RFA situation is unresolved, and while he has suitors (like Sacramento), Golden State has hesitated on sign-and-trade offers. They extended a qualifying offer but haven’t pushed to shape a future around him — and the clock ticking on Stephen Curry’s late prime grows louder with every passing year. They’re floating in neutral — neither bad enough to rebuild nor bold enough to retool.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers signed Deandre Ayton to a creative 1+1 deal using part of the Non-Taxpayer MLE after he was bought out by Portland, bringing him in on a combined $34 million payout across both teams. They also used a portion of the MLE to sign Jake LaRavia, but lost Dorian Finney-Smith in free agency and failed to extend Austin Reaves to their maximum allowable offer (i.e., Reaves will get paid as a free agent in 2026). LeBron opted into his $52 million player option, yet the front office appears focused on maintaining flexibility for a potential Luka Doncic pursuit in 2027 rather than maximizing the present. This approach quietly signals the wind-down of the LeBron era, with 2025–26 shaping up as a transitional season.
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland bought out Deandre Ayton and handed the frontcourt keys to Donovan Clingan. They drafted modestly and made no big splashes in free agency. It’s a low-event, development-first year for the Blazers — with internal growth prioritized over transactions. No harm was done, but no spark was added either. They’ve chosen patience, not ambition — and that’s fine, but uninspired.
🔻 Tier 4: Lost in the Shuffle (Ownership Disadvantaged)
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk for Jordan Poole, Saddiq Bey, and pick #40 — a youth-focused pivot, but one executed poorly. They used a portion of the MLE on Kevon Looney but are now hard-capped at the first apron with 14 players and just about $5 million in wiggle room. They also dealt their 2026 unprotected first — a potentially massive asset — to Atlanta. This is a team that can’t decide between developing and contending, and is financially blocked from doing either. The vision isn’t broken — it’s blurry and panicked.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns extended Devin Booker for two years at $75M+ per year and are preparing to waive-and-stretch Bradley Beal to escape the second apron. But even with cap gymnastics, the core is stale, aged, and inflexible. Kevin Durant is declining, and the roster lacks defensive balance or depth. They’ve traded every future draft pick and remain financially trapped. There’s no path to contention — just bookkeeping.
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento made one of the most baffling moves of the summer by giving Dennis Schröder a sizeable multi-year deal at age 31. They made no trades to consolidate or upgrade their core, and their draft was uninspiring. The Kings are too old to tank and too bad to contend. It’s arguably the worst blend of cap usage and roster direction in the Western Conference.